Ministry of Disinformation

Today's Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report makes for rather somber reading. It doesn't deny there are some green shoots out there but it does that the economy won't start to recover until the middle of next year.

This rather contradicts the governments forecast of a recovery starting later this year. The report also suggested that the economy will shrink by a terrifying 4.5% this year. This is significantly worse that the figures that Alistair Darling gave us in the budget 3 weeks or so ago.

According to the budget this year the UK ’s GDP is going to fall by 3.5%, next year it will grow by 1.25% and the following year back up to 3.5% growth. However The IMF thinks it will fall by 4.1% this year and by 0.4% next year. Only this time last year Alistair thought the UK ’s economy would grow (yes he was predicting growth in 2009) at 2.75% and in November last year this was slashed to a prediction of a fall between 0.75% and 1.25%.

So in the space of 3 weeks either the outlook for UK PLC in 2009 has deteriorated by 1% or the governments figures were rather optimistic (again)

Our chancellor's economic forecasting rather reminds me of Mohammed Saeed al-Sahar, also known during the second Gulf Way as Comical Ali. He was the infamous Iraqi Information Minister who regaled TV audiences with quotes such as "There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!." and "They're coming to surrender or be burned in their tanks."

Sadly though I think he is a lot more trustworthy than our chancellor and his predictions are likely to be a lot closer than Alistair's Disneyesque idea that there will be happy ending for all of us just around the corner. Fortunately for him Alistair's abilities to change his addresses 4 times in 4 years to maximise his expenses and to be able to claim almost £10,000 in stamp duty seem to be keenly honed. It's a shame he can't work the same magic with the economy.