When is it going to get easier?

When is it going to get easier?

In the true spirit of optimism we always think things are going to get better. 2009 was an annus horribilis in terms of mortgage volume. 2010 was supposed to be 10% or so better. Well if you had bet on this I think you ought to try to hedge now. As it looks rather like gross lending may even be lower than last year. It is hard to be cheerful about 2011's prospects when the majority of the volume lenders are nervously eyeing the end of the government's Credit Guarantee Scheme and the Special Liquidity Scheme when the government won't accept the lenders "IOU" vouchers any more.

Once you've got over digesting that then it is worth considering the Mortgage Market Review, clearly from a regulatory aspect things are going to be more challenging. We've also got to get to grips with a new approved persons regime. So is it time to pack our bags? Well if you read the comments sections on most of the bad news stories on Mortgage Introducer and other trade press web site, you don't need to bother as a large number of industry colleagues are already doing this. Undoubtedly some people won't make it through the approved persons regime but I think the suggestions that this could be 20% plus of the industry as exaggerated. The number of drops out will be significantly lower, maybe 5-10%. The fact that lenders will have to put all of their advisers through the approved persons regime and the fact that FSA scrutiny remains on non advised sales mean that it will be more expensive for lenders to distribute loans directly so the numbers of direct staff will reduce. So the thing to remember is that if people are leaving the industry, there are fewer advisers serving the greater public. Whatever lenders do with dual pricing, the public wants advice so they will seek brokers. We just have to hope that lending falls by less than adviser numbers. Whilst I don't think HSBC will embrace intermediaries in the short term, I think it will slow down its mortgage ambitions over the next couple of years. Whilst other lenders huff and puff I seriously doubt any of the major intermediary lenders will stop dealing with brokers. The MMR's more onerous requirements may push lenders to reduce the number of intermediaries they deal with. This will make the life of the small DA broker even harder. So the next time you think, "is this all worth it?" just remember everyone else is having the same thought and a good few people will think "no", so in time that should make your life easier.